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marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
1230 am PST Tue 6 Jan 2009
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Opc sfc map at 06z shows a wmfnt situated across the WA wtrs and
the far NE or wtrs. This fnt will lift N of the area early
today. Qscat pass around 03z showed wnds in the 15-25 kt rng
across most of the offshr...with maxima over the srn/cntrl pz6
zones. Qscat showed strong SW to W flow behind the wmftn but W
of the offshr.
Overall 00z mdls are in gud agrmt...especially for the first 3
days. Will be making two major changes to wrngs in next pkg. The
first change is adding a gale wrng late Thu over the NE prtn of
the WA wtrs. Ltst gdnc shows a much stronger NW gradient SW of
srn Vancouver Island and W of Cape Flattery for a short time.
The second change is to remove the gale wrng over the N pz6 wtrs
Fri. 00z gdnc is weaker with the thermal trof over cstl CA
allowing the gradient to slacken. Mdls diverge a bit on Fri/Sat
with next fnt approaching nrn wtrs. 00z GFS shows gud continuity
with prev fcst so will be used. However will cap wnds at 30 kt
even though 00z GFS/CMC indicate gales ahead of the fnt.
Seas...00z run of ww is coming more inline with seas over the
offshr and cwf. At 06z the ww is about 2-4 ft too high over the
pz5 zones when compared with ltst obs.
Warnings/forecast confidence...preliminary. Any changes will be
coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale tdy into Wed...hi confdc.
Gale late Thu...low confdc.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale tngt into early
Thu...MDT to hi confdc.
.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...gale late Wed into early Thu...MDT
confdc.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.
.Forecaster banks. Ocean forecast branch.
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