marine weather discussion NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1245 am EST Wed 7 Jan 2009

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

Warm front currently across the nrn nt2 waters will move N into the nt1 waters by Wed. Low pres is still expected to develop near the mid Atlantic coast early Wed...then track NE into the nt1 waters later Wed. Gales ahead of the associated cold front will spread into the nt2 waters by early Wed...then into the srn nt1 waters later Wed. The gales will then persist across N portions of the offshore waters into Fri in the NW flow. The GFS has been consistent with this scenario. Current warnings with this system look reasonable and no changes should be needed.

By late Sat the GFS tracks a low into the nt1 waters while the 12z ECMWF and UKMET were farther S and weaker with the low. Attm am leaning more towards the ECMWF/UKMET...but will introduce gales into the nrn nt2 waters for Sat in the SW flow ahead of the system.

The wavewatch model looks reasonable and will be followed fairly closely for the forecast.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...gale tonight into Thu ngt...low to mod confc. .Georges Bank...Gale today into Thu night...hi confdc. .S of New England...Gale today into Fri...MDT to hi confdc.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson to balt cnyn...gale today into Fri...hi confdc. Gale Sat...low confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hague line...Gale today into Fri...hi confdc. Gale Sat...low confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...Gale today into Fri...MDT to hi confdc. Gale Sat...low confdc. .Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...Gale today into Thu ngt...MDT to hi confdc. .Cape Fear to 31n...Gale today thru Thu ngt...mod confdc.

.Forecaster nolt. Ocean forecast branch.